Hearts vs St. Mirren Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Two well-matched sides make for a compelling statistical comparison here. Surface-level metrics only scratch the surface — once we factor in strength of schedule, the analysis gains real depth. The numbers both teams have posted reflect performances against broadly similar competition.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 47.0 vs 53.1), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Hearts (1.7 goals per match) and St. Mirren (1.7 goals per match) present comparable offensive threats, making this an evenly contested attacking matchup.

St. Mirren's backline outperforms Hearts's, with 1.0 goals conceded per match versus 1.3.

St. Mirren has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Hearts has an exceptional home record with a 100% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

St. Mirren is a strong road performer with a 60% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Statistical modeling projects 2.9 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

🔥 Form Momentum: Hearts is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 17 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

📈 Form Momentum: St. Mirren has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.7 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

⚠️ Risk Factor: In matches this evenly balanced, the deciding factor often comes down to set pieces and individual errors. Both teams should be wary of complacency in a match where neither side has a clear edge.

💡 Why This Matters: St. Mirren's superior Strength of Schedule means their statistics were earned against tougher opponents. A team that performs well against strong opposition is more likely to maintain that level in any given match.

The data offers no clear edge here. These sides are separated by the finest of margins across every key metric, making the final result almost impossible to call in advance.