Hull vs Middlesbrough Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

A statistical edge is evident here, but the trailing side carries enough threat to keep this competitive. Once opponent quality is accounted for, the differential softens somewhat without fundamentally altering the overall outlook.

Hull has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 59.8 against considerably stronger competition than Middlesbrough (SoS: 46.3). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.

Both teams are evenly matched in attack, with Hull averaging 1.3 and Middlesbrough averaging 1.4 goals per match.

Hull's backline outperforms Middlesbrough's, with 0.8 goals conceded per match versus 1.2.

Hull has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Statistical modeling projects 2.4 goals in this fixture. The data points Under 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

📈 Form Momentum: Hull has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.6 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: Middlesbrough is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

💡 Why This Matters: The 12.3-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 81% win probability for Hull. In practical terms, Hull would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Hull has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 12.3-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

In their recent Championship match (2026-05-23), Hull prevailed 1-0 against Middlesbrough. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Hull secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 1-0 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Middlesbrough will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Hull will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.