Santa Fe vs Peñarol Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

A statistical edge is evident here, but the trailing side carries enough threat to keep this competitive. Once opponent quality is accounted for, the differential softens somewhat without fundamentally altering the overall outlook.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 46.5 vs 47.9), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Santa Fe holds the attacking edge with 1.0 goals per match versus Peñarol's 0.7, though the gap isn't insurmountable.

The defensive records are closely aligned, with Santa Fe giving up 1.2 and Peñarol giving up 1.3 per fixture.

Santa Fe has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Peñarol has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Statistical modeling projects 2.1 goals in this fixture. The data points Under 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Santa Fe is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 6 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: Peñarol is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 6 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Santa Fe faces a key vulnerability: they have kept only 1 clean sheets in their last 10 matches. If Peñarol can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 7.1-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 68% win probability for Santa Fe. In practical terms, Santa Fe would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

Santa Fe has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 7.1-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. In their recent CONMEBOL Libertadores encounter (2026-05-28), Santa Fe came out on top with a 0-1 victory over Peñarol. European competition results carry significant weight in assessing the balance of power between these sides. Notably, Santa Fe achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Peñarol shows genuine quality and mental strength. The narrow 0-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Peñarol will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Santa Fe will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. These two teams drew 1-1 in the CONMEBOL Libertadores (2026-04-10). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.