Iran vs South Korea Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

Iran has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 58.2 against considerably stronger competition than South Korea (SoS: 45.6). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.

South Korea possess a formidable attacking unit, with Park Soo-Jeong accounting for 3 goals and the squad maintaining an impressive 2.0 goals per game — a threat no opponent can afford to overlook.

Defensively, Iran holds the advantage — allowing just 1.7 goals per game against South Korea's 2.2.

Iran has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

South Korea has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 3.3 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at unlikely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Iran is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 7 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, South Korea faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 2.2 goals per match. If Iran can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 6.7-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 67% win probability for South Korea. In practical terms, South Korea would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

While South Korea holds a measurable edge in the adjusted standings, the 6.7-point differential in power ratings indicates a competitive matchup rather than a clear-cut outcome.

In the AFC Women's Asian Cup (2026-03-02), South Korea eliminated Iran with a 3-0 result. Cup matches bring a unique intensity, and South Korea showed they can handle the pressure. South Korea secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 3-0 scoreline was emphatic — South Korea completely dominated Iran in that encounter, raising serious questions about Iran's ability to compete at this level. Iran will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. South Korea will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.