Israel vs Lithuania Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 54.7 vs 55.2), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Few sides can match Israel in front of goal. Their 1.9 average per fixture tells the story, with D. Peretz driving that output personally responsible for 3 goals this campaign.

Defensively, Israel and Lithuania are evenly matched, allowing 1.7 and 1.9 goals per game respectively.

Israel has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Lithuania has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 3.0 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being unlikely.

📈 Form Momentum: Israel has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.7 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: Lithuania is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Israel is on the rise with 5W in last 10, while Lithuania shows signs of decline with 1W in last 10.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Israel faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.7 goals per match. If Lithuania can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 23.5-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Israel. In practical terms, Israel would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward Israel in this contest. Their superior power rating of 53.8, compared to 30.3 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.

These two teams drew 0-0 in the Internationals (2025-11-13). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.