Italy vs Denmark Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

With comparable strength of schedule figures (44.2 vs 46.8), the opposition quality faced by both sides has been largely equivalent, giving these head-to-head stats greater analytical validity.

Offensively, Denmark outperforms Italy with 2.1 goals per match to 1.3, though the margin leaves the contest genuinely open.

The defensive records are closely aligned, with Italy giving up 1.1 and Denmark giving up 1.2 per fixture.

Italy has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 4 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Denmark has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Denmark is a strong road performer with a 60% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 2.9 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being possible.

❄️ Form Momentum: Italy is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📈 Form Momentum: Denmark has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 2.1 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Denmark is on the rise with 6W in last 10, while Italy shows signs of decline with 2W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 19.1-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Denmark. In practical terms, Denmark would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Denmark emerges as the favorite in this matchup. With a stronger overall power rating (61.5 vs 42.4) and advantages in key areas, they should have enough to prevail.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams drew 0-0 in the Women's European World Cup Qualifiers (2026-04-18). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning. These two teams drew 1-1 in the Women's European World Cup Qualifiers (2026-03-07). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.