Italy vs Sweden Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

With comparable strength of schedule figures (44.2 vs 36.9), the opposition quality faced by both sides has been largely equivalent, giving these head-to-head stats greater analytical validity.

Italy holds the attacking edge with 1.3 goals per match versus Sweden's 0.9, though the gap isn't insurmountable.

Defensively, Italy holds the advantage — allowing just 1.1 goals per game against Sweden's 1.5.

Italy has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 4 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 2.4 goals in this fixture. The data points Under 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Italy is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: Sweden is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

💡 Why This Matters: The 9.3-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 73% win probability for Italy. In practical terms, Italy would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

While Italy holds a measurable edge in the adjusted standings, the 9.3-point differential in power ratings indicates a competitive matchup rather than a clear-cut outcome.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams drew 2-2 in the Women's European World Cup Qualifiers (2026-06-09). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning. These two teams met recently in the Women's European World Cup Qualifiers (2026-03-03): Sweden defeated Italy 0-1. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Sweden's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Italy. Notably, Sweden achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Italy shows genuine quality and mental strength. The narrow 0-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Italy will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Sweden will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.