Kenya vs Chad Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

Context matters here: Kenya's schedule strength (SoS: 73.1) has been notably more demanding than Chad's (SoS: 56.7), meaning their underlying stats reflect performance against higher-calibre opposition and should be weighted accordingly.

Offensively, Kenya outperforms Chad with 1.6 goals per match to 0.8, though the margin leaves the contest genuinely open.

Defensively, Kenya holds the advantage — allowing just 1.7 goals per game against Chad's 2.3.

Chad has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.2 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking possible given current form.

❄️ Form Momentum: Chad is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Kenya is on the rise with 4W in last 10, while Chad shows signs of decline with 0W in last 10.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Kenya faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.7 goals per match. If Chad can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 25.7-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Kenya. In practical terms, Kenya would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward Kenya in this contest. Their superior power rating of 54.5, compared to 28.8 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. In their recent Internationals match (2025-06-10), Kenya prevailed 2-1 against Chad. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Kenya secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 2-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Chad will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Kenya will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. These two teams drew 0-0 in the Internationals (2025-06-07). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.