Kocaelispor vs Fatih Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Raw output from both teams looks comparable at first glance, yet once we account for Strength of Schedule, a clear hierarchy emerges. The favorite has repeatedly risen to the challenge against higher-caliber opponents, underlining a genuine quality advantage.

Context matters here: Fatih's schedule strength (SoS: 73.8) has been notably more demanding than Kocaelispor's (SoS: 62.8), meaning their underlying stats reflect performance against higher-calibre opposition and should be weighted accordingly.

Offensively, Fatih outperforms Kocaelispor with 1.0 goals per match to 0.5, though the margin leaves the contest genuinely open.

Fatih's backline outperforms Kocaelispor's, with 0.9 goals conceded per match versus 1.3.

Fatih has an exceptional home record with a 80% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Statistical modeling projects 1.8 goals in this fixture. The data points Under 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Kocaelispor is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📈 Form Momentum: Fatih has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.7 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Fatih is on the rise with 5W in last 10, while Kocaelispor shows signs of decline with 1W in last 10.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Fatih faces a key vulnerability: their away form is significantly weaker than their home record. If Kocaelispor can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 23.1-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Fatih. In practical terms, Fatih would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Based on the available data, Fatih holds the stronger position heading into this matchup. A power rating of 59.5 against 36.4 underlines their overall quality advantage and makes them the logical pick to come out on top.

In the Turkish Super Lig (2026-05-09), Fatih beat Kocaelispor 0-1. League results are the most consistent indicator of form, and this result speaks volumes about the current dynamic between these teams. Notably, Fatih achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Kocaelispor shows genuine quality and mental strength. The narrow 0-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Kocaelispor will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Fatih will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.