Latvia vs Portugal Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Raw output from both teams looks comparable at first glance, yet once we account for Strength of Schedule, a clear hierarchy emerges. The favorite has repeatedly risen to the challenge against higher-caliber opponents, underlining a genuine quality advantage.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 50.1 vs 49.0), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Few sides can match Portugal in front of goal. Their 2.1 average per fixture tells the story, with Kika Nazareth driving that output personally responsible for 6 goals this campaign.

Defensively, Portugal is far superior, conceding just 1.5 goals per match with 4 clean sheets, while Latvia leaks 2.8 goals per match.

Latvia has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Portugal has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 4 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Portugal is a strong road performer with a 60% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Statistical modeling projects 3.6 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Latvia is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 8 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📈 Form Momentum: Portugal has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.8 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Portugal is on the rise with 6W in last 10, while Latvia shows signs of decline with 0W in last 8.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Portugal faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.5 goals per match. If Latvia can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 32.1-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Portugal. In practical terms, Portugal would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Our opponent-adjusted metrics point overwhelmingly in one direction: Portugal holds a commanding advantage here. The power rating gap — 56.3 against 24.2 — reinforces what the underlying numbers already suggest, making Portugal a strong and justified favorite to win decisively.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams met recently in the Women's European World Cup Qualifiers (2026-06-05): Portugal defeated Latvia 5-0. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Portugal's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Latvia. Portugal secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 5-0 scoreline was emphatic — Portugal completely dominated Latvia in that encounter, raising serious questions about Latvia's ability to compete at this level. Latvia will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Portugal will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. These two teams met recently in the Women's European World Cup Qualifiers (2026-04-14): Portugal defeated Latvia 0-3. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Portugal's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Latvia. Notably, Portugal achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Latvia shows genuine quality and mental strength. The 0-3 scoreline was emphatic — Portugal completely dominated Latvia in that encounter, raising serious questions about Latvia's ability to compete at this level. Latvia will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Portugal will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.