Lithuania vs Denmark Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 55.2 vs 55.1), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Few sides can match Denmark in front of goal. Their 2.4 average per fixture tells the story, with R. Højlund driving that output personally responsible for 5 goals this campaign.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Denmark — 1.0 goals conceded per game and 5 clean sheets put them well ahead of Lithuania, who give up 1.9 goals per match at the other end.

Lithuania has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 3.0 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Lithuania is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📈 Form Momentum: Denmark has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.9 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Denmark is on the rise with 5W in last 10, while Lithuania shows signs of decline with 1W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 37.4-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Denmark. In practical terms, Denmark would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Accounting for opponent quality throughout our evaluation, Denmark emerges as the heavy favorite by every measurable indicator. A power rating of 67.7 compared to 30.3, combined with across-the-board statistical superiority, projects Denmark as the likely winner and by a comfortable margin.

In their recent Internationals match (2025-06-10), Denmark prevailed 5-0 against Lithuania. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Denmark secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 5-0 scoreline was emphatic — Denmark completely dominated Lithuania in that encounter, raising serious questions about Lithuania's ability to compete at this level. Lithuania will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Denmark will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.