Lithuania vs Georgia Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 55.2 vs 56.3), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Offensively, Georgia outperforms Lithuania with 1.4 goals per match to 0.6, though the margin leaves the contest genuinely open.

Defensively, Lithuania and Georgia are evenly matched, allowing 1.9 and 1.8 goals per game respectively.

Lithuania has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Georgia has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 4 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 2.9 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Lithuania is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Georgia faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.8 goals per match. If Lithuania can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 12.2-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 80% win probability for Georgia. In practical terms, Georgia would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Georgia has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 12.2-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

In their recent Internationals match (2026-03-29), Georgia prevailed 0-2 against Lithuania. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, Georgia achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Lithuania shows genuine quality and mental strength. Lithuania will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Georgia will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.