Lithuania vs Moldova Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

A statistical edge is evident here, but the trailing side carries enough threat to keep this competitive. Once opponent quality is accounted for, the differential softens somewhat without fundamentally altering the overall outlook.

With comparable strength of schedule figures (55.2 vs 54.5), the opposition quality faced by both sides has been largely equivalent, giving these head-to-head stats greater analytical validity.

Moldova leads the attacking statistics, averaging 0.9 goals per game compared to Lithuania's 0.6 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Defensively, Lithuania is far superior, conceding just 1.9 goals per match with 3 clean sheets, while Moldova leaks 3.2 goals per match.

Lithuania has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Moldova has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 3.3 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Lithuania is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: Moldova is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Lithuania faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.9 goals per match. If Moldova can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 6.8-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 67% win probability for Lithuania. In practical terms, Lithuania would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers lean toward Lithuania, with a 6.8-point power rating gap pointing to a genuine advantage — though not one that makes this contest a formality.

In their recent Internationals match (2026-03-26), Lithuania prevailed 0-2 against Moldova. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, Lithuania achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Moldova shows genuine quality and mental strength. Moldova will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Lithuania will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.