Lithuania vs Netherlands Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

With comparable strength of schedule figures (55.2 vs 55.2), the opposition quality faced by both sides has been largely equivalent, giving these head-to-head stats greater analytical validity.

Netherlands possess a formidable attacking unit, with C. Gakpo accounting for 6 goals and the squad maintaining an impressive 2.1 goals per game — a threat no opponent can afford to overlook.

Defensively, Netherlands is far superior, conceding just 1.0 goals per match with 1 clean sheets, while Lithuania leaks 1.9 goals per match.

Lithuania has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Netherlands has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 2.8 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking likely given current form.

❄️ Form Momentum: Lithuania is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📈 Form Momentum: Netherlands has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.9 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Netherlands is on the rise with 5W in last 10, while Lithuania shows signs of decline with 1W in last 10.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Netherlands faces a key vulnerability: they have kept only 1 clean sheets in their last 10 matches. If Lithuania can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 34.3-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Netherlands. In practical terms, Netherlands would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Based on our comprehensive analysis including opponent quality adjustment, Netherlands is the clear and dominant favorite. With a power rating of 64.6 vs 30.3, and superior metrics across the board, Netherlands should win this comfortably.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - European (2025-11-17): Netherlands defeated Lithuania 4-0. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Netherlands's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Lithuania. Netherlands secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 4-0 scoreline was emphatic — Netherlands completely dominated Lithuania in that encounter, raising serious questions about Lithuania's ability to compete at this level. Lithuania will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Netherlands will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - European (2025-09-07): Netherlands defeated Lithuania 2-3. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Netherlands's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Lithuania. Notably, Netherlands achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Lithuania shows genuine quality and mental strength. The narrow 2-3 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Lithuania will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Netherlands will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.