Liverpool vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

While the data leans decisively toward one side, dismissing the underdog would be premature. Adjusting for strength of schedule brings the margins closer together, yet the broader trend holds firm throughout the analysis.

Aston Villa has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 46.3 against considerably stronger competition than Liverpool (SoS: 35.0). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.

The attacking output of Liverpool and Aston Villa is virtually identical, with both sides posting averages of 1.1 and 1.2 goals per game respectively.

Liverpool holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 1.3 goals per game and recording 3 clean sheets, compared to Aston Villa's leaky backline that surrenders 2.9 goals per match.

Aston Villa has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.2 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking likely given current form.

❄️ Form Momentum: Aston Villa is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Liverpool is on the rise with 4W in last 10, while Aston Villa shows signs of decline with 1W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 11.0-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 78% win probability for Liverpool. In practical terms, Liverpool would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

While Liverpool holds a measurable edge in the adjusted standings, the 11.0-point differential in power ratings indicates a competitive matchup rather than a clear-cut outcome.

In their recent Women's Super League match (2026-02-08), Liverpool prevailed 4-1 against Aston Villa. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Liverpool secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 4-1 scoreline was emphatic — Liverpool completely dominated Aston Villa in that encounter, raising serious questions about Aston Villa's ability to compete at this level. Aston Villa will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Liverpool will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.