Luxembourg vs Belgium Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 42.7 vs 50.9), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Few sides can match Belgium in front of goal. Their 2.9 average per fixture tells the story, with T. Wullaert driving that output personally responsible for 11 goals this campaign.

Belgium holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 0.8 goals per game and recording 5 clean sheets, compared to Luxembourg's leaky backline that surrenders 4.2 goals per match.

Luxembourg has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Belgium is a strong road performer with a 60% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Statistical modeling projects 4.4 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Luxembourg is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📈 Form Momentum: Belgium has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 2.1 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Belgium is on the rise with 6W in last 10, while Luxembourg shows signs of decline with 2W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 52.7-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Belgium. In practical terms, Belgium would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Our opponent-adjusted metrics point overwhelmingly in one direction: Belgium holds a commanding advantage here. The power rating gap — 75.1 against 22.4 — reinforces what the underlying numbers already suggest, making Belgium a strong and justified favorite to win decisively.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams met recently in the Women's European World Cup Qualifiers (2026-06-09): Belgium defeated Luxembourg 0-7. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Belgium's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Luxembourg. Notably, Belgium achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Luxembourg shows genuine quality and mental strength. The 0-7 scoreline was emphatic — Belgium completely dominated Luxembourg in that encounter, raising serious questions about Luxembourg's ability to compete at this level. Luxembourg will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Belgium will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. These two teams met recently in the Women's European World Cup Qualifiers (2026-06-05): Belgium defeated Luxembourg 6-0. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Belgium's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Luxembourg. Belgium secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 6-0 scoreline was emphatic — Belgium completely dominated Luxembourg in that encounter, raising serious questions about Luxembourg's ability to compete at this level. Luxembourg will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Belgium will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.