Macarthur vs Adelaide Utd Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

A statistical edge is evident here, but the trailing side carries enough threat to keep this competitive. Once opponent quality is accounted for, the differential softens somewhat without fundamentally altering the overall outlook.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 46.4 vs 46.1), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

The attacking output of Macarthur and Adelaide Utd is virtually identical, with both sides posting averages of 1.5 and 1.5 goals per game respectively.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Adelaide Utd — 1.3 goals conceded per game and 0 clean sheets put them well ahead of Macarthur, who give up 2.3 goals per match at the other end.

Macarthur has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Adelaide Utd has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Statistical modeling projects 3.3 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Adelaide Utd faces a key vulnerability: they have kept only 0 clean sheets in their last 10 matches. If Macarthur can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 11.3-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 78% win probability for Adelaide Utd. In practical terms, Adelaide Utd would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Adelaide Utd has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 11.3-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

In their recent Australian A-League Men match (2026-04-19), Adelaide Utd prevailed 3-1 against Macarthur. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Adelaide Utd secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. Macarthur will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Adelaide Utd will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.