Madagascar vs Mali Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

While the data leans decisively toward one side, dismissing the underdog would be premature. Adjusting for strength of schedule brings the margins closer together, yet the broader trend holds firm throughout the analysis.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 48.2 vs 41.2), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Madagascar leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.9 goals per game compared to Mali's 0.9 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Defensively, Mali is far superior, conceding just 0.7 goals per match with 4 clean sheets, while Madagascar leaks 1.8 goals per match.

Madagascar has an exceptional home record with a 100% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 2.7 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking possible given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: Madagascar has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.78 points per game over their last 9 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: Mali is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Madagascar is on the rise with 5W in last 9, while Mali shows signs of decline with 2W in last 10.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Madagascar faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.8 goals per match. If Mali can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 9.4-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 74% win probability for Madagascar. In practical terms, Madagascar would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers lean toward Madagascar, with a 9.4-point power rating gap pointing to a genuine advantage — though not one that makes this contest a formality.

These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - African (2025-10-12): Mali defeated Madagascar 4-1. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Mali's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Madagascar. Mali secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 4-1 scoreline was emphatic — Mali completely dominated Madagascar in that encounter, raising serious questions about Madagascar's ability to compete at this level. Madagascar will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Mali will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.