Mainz vs Freiburg Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison
Compare Mainz vs Freiburg: head-to-head stats, recent form, goals, defensive record and strength indicators from last matches.
Mainz
Home Team
Freiburg
Away Team
Compare...
Performance Radar
Categories Won
Mainz
Draw
Freiburg
Statistical Comparison
6W, 2D, 2L
5W, 1D, 4L
28 / 10 matches
21 / 10 matches
13 / 10 matches
17 / 10 matches
+15
+4
4 / 10 matches
1 / 10 matches
7 / 10 matches
8 / 10 matches
6 / 10 matches
7 / 10 matches
3W / 6 matches
3W / 5 matches
3W / 4 matches
2W / 5 matches
League Difficulty: 68.0, Opponent Quality: 58.2
League Difficulty: 78.7, Opponent Quality: 62.7
1W / 3 matches
2W / 4 matches
Actual: 2.8 | Diff: -0.32
Actual: 2.1 | Diff: -0.48
Attack: 98.7, Defense: 60.0, Form: 63.5
Attack: 81.1, Defense: 50.2, Form: 58.0
Goal Timing Analysis
0-15'
16-30'
31-45'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Power Rating Breakdown
Overall
Power Rating Breakdown
Overall
Strength of Schedule
Measures the difficulty of opponents faced. Higher = tougher schedule.
League Difficulty
Opponent Quality
Elite Opponent Record
Mainz
Freiburg
Opponent Quality: Quality blends league strength, recent points form, goal difference, and home/away context. It is not only club size or reputation.
AI Analysis
The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.
Context matters here: Freiburg's schedule strength (SoS: 65.9) has been notably more demanding than Mainz's (SoS: 55.8), meaning their underlying stats reflect performance against higher-calibre opposition and should be weighted accordingly.
Mainz leads the attacking statistics, averaging 2.8 goals per game compared to Freiburg's 2.1 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.
Defensively, Mainz holds the advantage — allowing just 1.3 goals per game against Freiburg's 1.7.
Mainz has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.
Freiburg has proven their mettle against elite opponents, winning 2 of 4 matches against top-tier teams. This is a crucial indicator of their ability to perform under pressure.
Mainz is a strong road performer with a 75% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.
Based on the combined statistics, expect 3.9 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being likely.
📈 Form Momentum: Mainz has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 2.0 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.
📈 Form Momentum: Freiburg has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.6 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.
💡 Why This Matters: The 11.4-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 78% win probability for Mainz. In practical terms, Mainz would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.
While Mainz holds a measurable edge in the adjusted standings, the 11.4-point differential in power ratings indicates a competitive matchup rather than a clear-cut outcome.
Match Simulator
AI-powered match simulation based on real statistics
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Mainz
Freiburg
In H2H (head-to-head) matchups, to eliminate momentary fluctuations and coincidences, we limit our analyses to an optimal depth of exactly 10 matches. Neither less, nor more. This focused approach is our undisputed gold standard, revealing the tactical and psychological supremacy teams hold over each other in its purest form. We do not dwell on the noise of the past; we concentrate on the millimetric precision of current form.
Comparison Summary
This head-to-head comparison analyzes the last 10 matches of each team, evaluating attack power, defensive strength, form consistency, and overall performance metrics. The power ratings are calculated using a weighted algorithm that considers goals scored, goals conceded, win rate, and recent form trends.
Mainz
6W 2D 2L · 28 goals scored · 13 conceded
Freiburg
5W 1D 4L · 21 goals scored · 17 conceded
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