Malawi vs Zambia Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

Context matters here: Malawi's schedule strength (SoS: 59.5) has been notably more demanding than Zambia's (SoS: 48.2), meaning their underlying stats reflect performance against higher-calibre opposition and should be weighted accordingly.

Malawi (0.6 goals per match) and Zambia (0.4 goals per match) present comparable offensive threats, making this an evenly contested attacking matchup.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Malawi — 0.7 goals conceded per game and 4 clean sheets put them well ahead of Zambia, who give up 1.9 goals per match at the other end.

Malawi has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Statistical modeling projects 1.8 goals in this fixture. The data points Under 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at unlikely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Malawi is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: Zambia is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

💡 Why This Matters: The 17.2-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Malawi. In practical terms, Malawi would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Malawi emerges as the favorite in this matchup. With a stronger overall power rating (44.2 vs 27.0) and advantages in key areas, they should have enough to prevail.

In their recent Internationals match (2026-03-28), Zambia prevailed 0-0 against Malawi. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Zambia secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. Malawi will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Zambia will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.