Mali vs Iran Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

Iran has faced significantly tougher opposition (SoS: 54.1) compared to Mali (SoS: 41.2). This means Iran's statistics carry more weight - they've been battle-tested against quality opponents.

Offensively, Iran outperforms Mali with 1.6 goals per match to 0.9, though the margin leaves the contest genuinely open.

Defensively, Mali and Iran are evenly matched, allowing 0.7 and 0.6 goals per game respectively.

Iran has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 1.9 goals in this fixture. The data points Under 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Mali is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📈 Form Momentum: Iran has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.7 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

💡 Why This Matters: The 17.7-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Iran. In practical terms, Iran would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Iran emerges as the favorite in this matchup. With a stronger overall power rating (59.5 vs 41.8) and advantages in key areas, they should have enough to prevail.

In their recent Internationals match (2026-06-04), Iran prevailed 2-0 against Mali. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Iran secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. Mali will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Iran will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.