Mali vs Jordan Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

Jordan has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 56.0 against considerably stronger competition than Mali (SoS: 41.2). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.

Both teams are evenly matched in attack, with Mali averaging 0.9 and Jordan averaging 1.2 goals per match.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Mali — 0.7 goals conceded per game and 4 clean sheets put them well ahead of Jordan, who give up 2.5 goals per match at the other end.

Jordan has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 5 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 2.6 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Mali is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: Jordan is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

💡 Why This Matters: The 10.6-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 76% win probability for Mali. In practical terms, Mali would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers lean toward Mali, with a 10.6-point power rating gap pointing to a genuine advantage — though not one that makes this contest a formality.

These two teams drew 0-0 in the Internationals (2025-11-18). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.