Mariehamn vs TPS Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 48.2 vs 45.8), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

TPS leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.5 goals per game compared to Mariehamn's 0.9 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for TPS — 1.1 goals conceded per game and 4 clean sheets put them well ahead of Mariehamn, who give up 2.4 goals per match at the other end.

Mariehamn has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

TPS has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Statistical modeling projects 3.0 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Mariehamn is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📈 Form Momentum: TPS has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.5 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

💡 Why This Matters: The 20.3-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for TPS. In practical terms, TPS would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward TPS in this contest. Their superior power rating of 48.6, compared to 28.3 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.

In their recent Finnish Veikkausliiga match (2026-08-01), TPS prevailed 3-0 against Mariehamn. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. TPS secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 3-0 scoreline was emphatic — TPS completely dominated Mariehamn in that encounter, raising serious questions about Mariehamn's ability to compete at this level. Mariehamn will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. TPS will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.