Mexico vs Costa Rica Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Raw output from both teams looks comparable at first glance, yet once we account for Strength of Schedule, a clear hierarchy emerges. The favorite has repeatedly risen to the challenge against higher-caliber opponents, underlining a genuine quality advantage.

Context matters here: Mexico's schedule strength (SoS: 73.4) has been notably more demanding than Costa Rica's (SoS: 57.1), meaning their underlying stats reflect performance against higher-calibre opposition and should be weighted accordingly.

Mexico leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.1 goals per game compared to Costa Rica's 0.8 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Mexico — 0.3 goals conceded per game and 8 clean sheets put them well ahead of Costa Rica, who give up 3.6 goals per match at the other end.

Mexico has proven their mettle against elite opponents, winning 3 of 4 matches against top-tier teams. This is a crucial indicator of their ability to perform under pressure.

Costa Rica has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Mexico has an exceptional home record with a 83% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Mexico is a strong road performer with a 67% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Statistical modeling projects 2.9 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at unlikely based on both sides' scoring records.

🔥 Form Momentum: Mexico is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 9 matches with 10 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

❄️ Form Momentum: Costa Rica is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 5 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Mexico is on the rise with 7W in last 9, while Costa Rica shows signs of decline with 0W in last 5.

💡 Why This Matters: The 54.5-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Mexico. In practical terms, Mexico would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Accounting for opponent quality throughout our evaluation, Mexico emerges as the heavy favorite by every measurable indicator. A power rating of 77.3 compared to 22.8, combined with across-the-board statistical superiority, projects Mexico as the likely winner and by a comfortable margin.

In their recent Internationals Women match (2025-12-02), Mexico prevailed 0-2 against Costa Rica. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, Mexico achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Costa Rica shows genuine quality and mental strength. Costa Rica will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Mexico will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.