Montenegro vs Lithuania Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

Montenegro has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 59.7 against considerably stronger competition than Lithuania (SoS: 47.9). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.

Lithuania leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.6 goals per game compared to Montenegro's 1.2 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Lithuania holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 0.5 goals per game and recording 5 clean sheets, compared to Montenegro's leaky backline that surrenders 2.6 goals per match.

Montenegro has proven their mettle against elite opponents, winning 2 of 3 matches against top-tier teams. This is a crucial indicator of their ability to perform under pressure.

Lithuania has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.0 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking possible given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: Lithuania has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.75 points per game over their last 8 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

💡 Why This Matters: The 24.6-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Lithuania. In practical terms, Lithuania would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward Lithuania in this contest. Their superior power rating of 58.2, compared to 33.6 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.

In their recent UEFA Women's Nations League match (2025-06-03), Montenegro prevailed 0-1 against Lithuania. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, Montenegro achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Lithuania shows genuine quality and mental strength. The narrow 0-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Lithuania will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Montenegro will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.