Nepal vs India Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

With comparable strength of schedule figures (54.8 vs 59.0), the opposition quality faced by both sides has been largely equivalent, giving these head-to-head stats greater analytical validity.

Both teams are evenly matched in attack, with Nepal averaging 0.6 and India averaging 0.8 goals per match.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Nepal — 1.8 goals conceded per game and 0 clean sheets put them well ahead of India, who give up 3.1 goals per match at the other end.

India has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 3.2 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being possible.

❄️ Form Momentum: Nepal is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 5 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: India is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 8 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Nepal faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.8 goals per match. If India can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 8.4-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 71% win probability for Nepal. In practical terms, Nepal would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

Nepal has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 8.4-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

In their recent Internationals Women match (2025-10-27), Nepal prevailed 1-2 against India. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, Nepal achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against India shows genuine quality and mental strength. The narrow 1-2 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. India will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Nepal will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.