Netherlands vs Lithuania Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 55.2 vs 55.2), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Netherlands's attack is on another level, averaging 2.1 goals per match with C. Gakpo leading the charge (6 goals). This firepower makes them dangerous in any fixture.

Defensively, Netherlands is far superior, conceding just 1.0 goals per match with 1 clean sheets, while Lithuania leaks 1.9 goals per match.

Netherlands has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Lithuania has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 2.8 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being likely.

📈 Form Momentum: Netherlands has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.9 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: Lithuania is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Netherlands is on the rise with 5W in last 10, while Lithuania shows signs of decline with 1W in last 10.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Netherlands faces a key vulnerability: they have kept only 1 clean sheets in their last 10 matches. If Lithuania can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 34.3-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Netherlands. In practical terms, Netherlands would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Based on our comprehensive analysis including opponent quality adjustment, Netherlands is the clear and dominant favorite. With a power rating of 64.6 vs 30.3, and superior metrics across the board, Netherlands should win this comfortably.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - European (2025-11-17): Netherlands defeated Lithuania 4-0. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Netherlands's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Lithuania. Netherlands secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 4-0 scoreline was emphatic — Netherlands completely dominated Lithuania in that encounter, raising serious questions about Lithuania's ability to compete at this level. Lithuania will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Netherlands will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - European (2025-09-07): Netherlands defeated Lithuania 2-3. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Netherlands's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Lithuania. Notably, Netherlands achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Lithuania shows genuine quality and mental strength. The narrow 2-3 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Lithuania will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Netherlands will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.