Nicaragua vs Costa Rica Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 39.7 vs 41.6), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Costa Rica holds the attacking edge with 1.1 goals per match versus Nicaragua's 0.5, though the gap isn't insurmountable.

Costa Rica has the defensive edge, conceding 1.9 per match compared to Nicaragua's 2.2.

Costa Rica has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 2.9 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being possible.

❄️ Form Momentum: Nicaragua is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: Costa Rica is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Costa Rica faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.9 goals per match. If Nicaragua can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 8.5-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 71% win probability for Costa Rica. In practical terms, Costa Rica would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

While Costa Rica holds a measurable edge in the adjusted standings, the 8.5-point differential in power ratings indicates a competitive matchup rather than a clear-cut outcome.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - North/Central America (2025-10-14): Costa Rica defeated Nicaragua 4-1. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Costa Rica's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Nicaragua. Costa Rica secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 4-1 scoreline was emphatic — Costa Rica completely dominated Nicaragua in that encounter, raising serious questions about Nicaragua's ability to compete at this level. Nicaragua will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Costa Rica will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. These two teams drew 1-1 in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - North/Central America (2025-09-06). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.