N. Ireland vs Italy Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

Context matters here: Italy's schedule strength (SoS: 79.0) has been notably more demanding than N. Ireland's (SoS: 58.2), meaning their underlying stats reflect performance against higher-calibre opposition and should be weighted accordingly.

Few sides can match Italy in front of goal. Their 2.4 average per fixture tells the story, with M. Kean driving that output personally responsible for 6 goals this campaign.

Defensively, N. Ireland and Italy are evenly matched, allowing 1.2 and 1.0 goals per game respectively.

N. Ireland has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 5 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Italy has an exceptional home record with a 75% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Italy is a strong road performer with a 83% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 2.8 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being possible.

🔥 Form Momentum: Italy is in scorching form, winning 8 of their last 10 matches with 24 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Italy is on the rise with 8W in last 10, while N. Ireland shows signs of decline with 4W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 45.8-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Italy. In practical terms, Italy would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Our opponent-adjusted metrics point overwhelmingly in one direction: Italy holds a commanding advantage here. The power rating gap — 91.8 against 46.0 — reinforces what the underlying numbers already suggest, making Italy a strong and justified favorite to win decisively.

These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - European (2026-03-26): Italy defeated N. Ireland 2-0. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Italy's ability to perform on the biggest stage against N. Ireland. Italy secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. N. Ireland will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Italy will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.