Philippines vs Japan Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Raw output from both teams looks comparable at first glance, yet once we account for Strength of Schedule, a clear hierarchy emerges. The favorite has repeatedly risen to the challenge against higher-caliber opponents, underlining a genuine quality advantage.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 54.8 vs 56.5), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Japan possess a formidable attacking unit, with R. Ueki accounting for 7 goals and the squad maintaining an impressive 3.4 goals per game — a threat no opponent can afford to overlook.

Japan holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 0.7 goals per game and recording 6 clean sheets, compared to Philippines's leaky backline that surrenders 2.0 goals per match.

Philippines has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Japan has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 2 of 5 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Japan has an exceptional home record with a 80% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Japan is a strong road performer with a 60% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Statistical modeling projects 3.5 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at unlikely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Philippines is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 7 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

🔥 Form Momentum: Japan is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 34 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Japan is on the rise with 7W in last 10, while Philippines shows signs of decline with 2W in last 7.

💡 Why This Matters: The 44.7-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Japan. In practical terms, Japan would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Based on our comprehensive analysis including opponent quality adjustment, Japan is the clear and dominant favorite. With a power rating of 79.3 vs 34.6, and superior metrics across the board, Japan should win this comfortably.

In the AFC Women's Asian Cup (2026-03-15), Japan eliminated Philippines with a 7-0 result. Cup matches bring a unique intensity, and Japan showed they can handle the pressure. Japan secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 7-0 scoreline was emphatic — Japan completely dominated Philippines in that encounter, raising serious questions about Philippines's ability to compete at this level. Philippines will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Japan will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.