Portsmouth vs Derby Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

While the data leans decisively toward one side, dismissing the underdog would be premature. Adjusting for strength of schedule brings the margins closer together, yet the broader trend holds firm throughout the analysis.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 42.5 vs 46.1), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Both teams are evenly matched in attack, with Portsmouth averaging 1.3 and Derby averaging 1.5 goals per match.

Both defenses are comparable, with Portsmouth conceding 1.4 and Derby conceding 1.1 per match.

Derby has an exceptional home record with a 75% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 2.7 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being likely.

📈 Form Momentum: Portsmouth has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.7 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📈 Form Momentum: Derby has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.8 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

💡 Why This Matters: The 7.1-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 68% win probability for Derby. In practical terms, Derby would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

Derby has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 7.1-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

In their recent Championship match (2026-03-16), Derby prevailed 0-1 against Portsmouth. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, Derby achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Portsmouth shows genuine quality and mental strength. The narrow 0-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Portsmouth will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Derby will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.