Rijeka vs Varaždin Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 49.2 vs 49.0), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Varaždin leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.8 goals per game compared to Rijeka's 1.3 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Rijeka's backline outperforms Varaždin's, with 0.5 goals conceded per match versus 0.9.

Rijeka has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Varaždin has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Varaždin has an exceptional home record with a 83% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 2.2 total goals. Going Under 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking unlikely given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: Rijeka has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.8 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

🔥 Form Momentum: Varaždin is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 18 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

💡 Why This Matters: The 7.5-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 69% win probability for Varaždin. In practical terms, Varaždin would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

Varaždin has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 7.5-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

In their recent Croatia Prva HNL match (2026-04-22), Varaždin prevailed 1-0 against Rijeka. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Varaždin secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 1-0 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Rijeka will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Varaždin will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.