Roma vs Atalanta Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 56.5 vs 63.5), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Few sides can match Roma in front of goal. Their 2.3 average per fixture tells the story, with D. Malen driving that output personally responsible for 8 goals this campaign.

Defensively, Roma and Atalanta are evenly matched, allowing 1.1 and 1.0 goals per game respectively.

Atalanta has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 4 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Roma has an exceptional home record with a 80% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Roma is a strong road performer with a 60% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 2.8 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking possible given current form.

🔥 Form Momentum: Roma is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 23 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Roma is on the rise with 7W in last 10, while Atalanta shows signs of decline with 3W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 21.9-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Roma. In practical terms, Roma would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Roma emerges as the favorite in this matchup. With a stronger overall power rating (73.3 vs 51.4) and advantages in key areas, they should have enough to prevail.

These two teams drew 1-1 in the Italian Serie A (2026-04-18). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.