Roma vs Fiorentina Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 68.0 vs 58.8), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Roma holds the attacking edge with 2.3 goals per match versus Fiorentina's 1.4, though the gap isn't insurmountable.

Fiorentina's backline outperforms Roma's, with 1.2 goals conceded per match versus 1.5.

Roma has proven their mettle against elite opponents, winning 3 of 4 matches against top-tier teams. This is a crucial indicator of their ability to perform under pressure.

Roma has an exceptional home record with a 100% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.2 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking possible given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: Roma has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 2.0 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📈 Form Momentum: Fiorentina has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.6 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Roma faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.5 goals per match. If Fiorentina can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 17.8-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Roma. In practical terms, Roma would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward Roma in this contest. Their superior power rating of 70.9, compared to 53.1 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.

In the Italian Serie A (2026-05-04), Roma beat Fiorentina 4-0. League results are the most consistent indicator of form, and this result speaks volumes about the current dynamic between these teams. Roma secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 4-0 scoreline was emphatic — Roma completely dominated Fiorentina in that encounter, raising serious questions about Fiorentina's ability to compete at this level. Fiorentina will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Roma will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.