Romania vs San Marino Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 54.2 vs 54.7), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Few sides can match Romania in front of goal. Their 1.6 average per fixture tells the story, with L. Munteanu driving that output personally responsible for 3 goals this campaign.

Defensively, Romania is far superior, conceding just 1.5 goals per match with 1 clean sheets, while San Marino leaks 3.7 goals per match.

Romania has an exceptional home record with a 80% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.7 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking likely given current form.

❄️ Form Momentum: San Marino is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Romania is on the rise with 4W in last 10, while San Marino shows signs of decline with 0W in last 10.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Romania faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.5 goals per match. If San Marino can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 29.1-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Romania. In practical terms, Romania would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Romania emerges as the favorite in this matchup. With a stronger overall power rating (48.9 vs 19.8) and advantages in key areas, they should have enough to prevail.

These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - European (2025-11-18): Romania defeated San Marino 7-1. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Romania's ability to perform on the biggest stage against San Marino. Romania secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 7-1 scoreline was emphatic — Romania completely dominated San Marino in that encounter, raising serious questions about San Marino's ability to compete at this level. San Marino will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Romania will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.