San Marino vs Albania Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 53.0 vs 61.6), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Few sides can match Albania in front of goal. Their 1.2 average per fixture tells the story, with K. Dodaj driving that output personally responsible for 1 goals this campaign.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Albania — 1.0 goals conceded per game and 3 clean sheets put them well ahead of San Marino, who give up 3.2 goals per match at the other end.

Albania has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 6 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Albania has an exceptional home record with a 75% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 2.8 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being unlikely.

❄️ Form Momentum: San Marino is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 5 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📈 Form Momentum: Albania has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.6 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Albania is on the rise with 5W in last 10, while San Marino shows signs of decline with 0W in last 5.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Albania faces a key vulnerability: their away form is significantly weaker than their home record. If San Marino can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 37.5-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Albania. In practical terms, Albania would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Accounting for opponent quality throughout our evaluation, Albania emerges as the heavy favorite by every measurable indicator. A power rating of 54.6 compared to 17.1, combined with across-the-board statistical superiority, projects Albania as the likely winner and by a comfortable margin.

In their recent Under 21 Internationals match (2025-10-10), Albania prevailed 2-0 against San Marino. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Albania secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. San Marino will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Albania will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.