San Marino vs Cyprus Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 54.7 vs 51.8), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Cyprus's attack is on another level, averaging 1.6 goals per match with C. Charalampous leading the charge (3 goals). This firepower makes them dangerous in any fixture.

Cyprus holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 1.5 goals per game and recording 2 clean sheets, compared to San Marino's leaky backline that surrenders 3.7 goals per match.

Statistical modeling projects 3.7 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: San Marino is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Cyprus is on the rise with 3W in last 10, while San Marino shows signs of decline with 0W in last 10.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Cyprus faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.5 goals per match. If San Marino can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 26.4-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Cyprus. In practical terms, Cyprus would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Based on the available data, Cyprus holds the stronger position heading into this matchup. A power rating of 46.2 against 19.8 underlines their overall quality advantage and makes them the logical pick to come out on top.

These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - European (2025-10-12): Cyprus defeated San Marino 0-4. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Cyprus's ability to perform on the biggest stage against San Marino. Notably, Cyprus achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against San Marino shows genuine quality and mental strength. The 0-4 scoreline was emphatic — Cyprus completely dominated San Marino in that encounter, raising serious questions about San Marino's ability to compete at this level. San Marino will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Cyprus will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.