São Paulo vs Chapecoense Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison
Compare São Paulo vs Chapecoense: head-to-head stats, recent form, goals, defensive record and strength indicators from last matches.
São Paulo
Home Team
Chapecoense
Away Team
Compare...
Performance Radar
Categories Won
São Paulo
Draw
Chapecoense
Statistical Comparison
2W, 2D, 6L
0W, 2D, 8L
13 / 10 matches
9 / 10 matches
16 / 10 matches
23 / 10 matches
-3
-14
1 / 10 matches
0 / 10 matches
6 / 10 matches
7 / 10 matches
7 / 10 matches
7 / 10 matches
2W / 5 matches
0W / 4 matches
0W / 5 matches
0W / 6 matches
League Difficulty: 68.0, Opponent Quality: 59.6
League Difficulty: 68.0, Opponent Quality: 62.5
0W / 0 matches
0W / 3 matches
Actual: 1.3 | Diff: -0.08
Actual: 0.9 | Diff: -0.01
Attack: 49.0, Defense: 52.7, Form: 22.6
Attack: 29.7, Defense: 23.1, Form: 0.0
Goal Timing Analysis
0-15'
16-30'
31-45'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Power Rating Breakdown
Overall
Power Rating Breakdown
Overall
Strength of Schedule
Measures the difficulty of opponents faced. Higher = tougher schedule.
League Difficulty
Opponent Quality
Elite Opponent Record
São Paulo
Chapecoense
Opponent Quality: Quality blends league strength, recent points form, goal difference, and home/away context. It is not only club size or reputation.
AI Analysis
While the data leans decisively toward one side, dismissing the underdog would be premature. Adjusting for strength of schedule brings the margins closer together, yet the broader trend holds firm throughout the analysis.
São Paulo has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 63.0 against considerably stronger competition than Chapecoense (SoS: 49.1). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.
São Paulo leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.3 goals per game compared to Chapecoense's 0.9 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.
Defensively, São Paulo holds the advantage — allowing just 1.6 goals per game against Chapecoense's 2.3.
São Paulo has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.
Chapecoense has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.
Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.0 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking likely given current form.
❄️ Form Momentum: São Paulo is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.
❄️ Form Momentum: Chapecoense is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.
⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, São Paulo faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.6 goals per match. If Chapecoense can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.
💡 Why This Matters: The 14.5-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for São Paulo. In practical terms, São Paulo would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.
The numbers lean toward São Paulo, with a 14.5-point power rating gap pointing to a genuine advantage — though not one that makes this contest a formality.
Match Simulator
AI-powered match simulation based on real statistics
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São Paulo
Chapecoense
In H2H (head-to-head) matchups, to eliminate momentary fluctuations and coincidences, we limit our analyses to an optimal depth of exactly 10 matches. Neither less, nor more. This focused approach is our undisputed gold standard, revealing the tactical and psychological supremacy teams hold over each other in its purest form. We do not dwell on the noise of the past; we concentrate on the millimetric precision of current form.
Comparison Summary
This head-to-head comparison analyzes the last 10 matches of each team, evaluating attack power, defensive strength, form consistency, and overall performance metrics. The power ratings are calculated using a weighted algorithm that considers goals scored, goals conceded, win rate, and recent form trends.
São Paulo
2W 2D 6L · 13 goals scored · 16 conceded
Chapecoense
0W 2D 8L · 9 goals scored · 23 conceded
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