Sarpsborg vs Fredrikstad Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

Context matters here: Sarpsborg's schedule strength (SoS: 50.2) has been notably more demanding than Fredrikstad's (SoS: 36.0), meaning their underlying stats reflect performance against higher-calibre opposition and should be weighted accordingly.

Sarpsborg leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.5 goals per game compared to Fredrikstad's 0.9 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Defensively, Sarpsborg and Fredrikstad are evenly matched, allowing 1.3 and 1.2 goals per game respectively.

Sarpsborg has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Fredrikstad has an exceptional home record with a 80% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 2.4 total goals. Under 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being likely.

📈 Form Momentum: Sarpsborg has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.7 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📈 Form Momentum: Fredrikstad has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.6 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Sarpsborg faces a key vulnerability: their away form is significantly weaker than their home record. If Fredrikstad can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 11.7-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 79% win probability for Sarpsborg. In practical terms, Sarpsborg would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers lean toward Sarpsborg, with a 11.7-point power rating gap pointing to a genuine advantage — though not one that makes this contest a formality.

In their recent Norwegian Eliteserien match (2026-05-09), Sarpsborg prevailed 2-1 against Fredrikstad. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Sarpsborg secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 2-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Fredrikstad will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Sarpsborg will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.