Senegal vs Iraq Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

While the data leans decisively toward one side, dismissing the underdog would be premature. Adjusting for strength of schedule brings the margins closer together, yet the broader trend holds firm throughout the analysis.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 52.4 vs 51.9), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Few sides can match Senegal in front of goal. Their 1.8 average per fixture tells the story, with I. Sarr driving that output personally responsible for 5 goals this campaign.

The defensive records are closely aligned, with Senegal giving up 1.6 and Iraq giving up 1.8 per fixture.

Senegal has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Senegal has an exceptional home record with a 80% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 3.0 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being possible.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Senegal faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.6 goals per match. If Iraq can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 13.1-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 83% win probability for Senegal. In practical terms, Senegal would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers lean toward Senegal, with a 13.1-point power rating gap pointing to a genuine advantage — though not one that makes this contest a formality.

These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup (2026-06-26): Senegal defeated Iraq 5-0. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Senegal's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Iraq. Senegal secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 5-0 scoreline was emphatic — Senegal completely dominated Iraq in that encounter, raising serious questions about Iraq's ability to compete at this level. Iraq will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Senegal will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.