Senegal vs Sudan Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 52.4 vs 54.9), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Few sides can match Senegal in front of goal. Their 1.8 average per fixture tells the story, with I. Sarr driving that output personally responsible for 5 goals this campaign.

Both defenses are comparable, with Senegal conceding 1.6 and Sudan conceding 1.6 per match.

Senegal has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Sudan has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Senegal has an exceptional home record with a 80% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Statistical modeling projects 2.6 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at unlikely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Sudan is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 9 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Senegal is on the rise with 4W in last 10, while Sudan shows signs of decline with 1W in last 9.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Senegal faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.6 goals per match. If Sudan can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 19.9-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Senegal. In practical terms, Senegal would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Based on the available data, Senegal holds the stronger position heading into this matchup. A power rating of 48.6 against 28.7 underlines their overall quality advantage and makes them the logical pick to come out on top.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. In the CAF Africa Cup of Nations (2026-01-03), Senegal eliminated Sudan with a 3-1 result. Cup matches bring a unique intensity, and Senegal showed they can handle the pressure. Senegal secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. Sudan will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Senegal will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - African (2025-09-05): Senegal defeated Sudan 2-0. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Senegal's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Sudan. Senegal secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. Sudan will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Senegal will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.