Shamrock vs Derry Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 53.6 vs 43.7), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Shamrock (1.9 goals per match) and Derry (1.7 goals per match) present comparable offensive threats, making this an evenly contested attacking matchup.

Defensively, Shamrock holds the advantage — allowing just 1.1 goals per game against Derry's 1.6.

Shamrock has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Derry has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Shamrock has an exceptional home record with a 80% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.2 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking likely given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: Shamrock has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.9 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Shamrock is on the rise with 6W in last 10, while Derry shows signs of decline with 3W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 19.0-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Shamrock. In practical terms, Shamrock would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward Shamrock in this contest. Their superior power rating of 61.2, compared to 42.2 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.

These two teams drew 1-1 in the Irish Premier Division (2026-06-22). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.