Earthquakes vs St. Louis Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 53.1 vs 50.5), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Offensively, St. Louis outperforms Earthquakes with 2.0 goals per match to 1.3, though the margin leaves the contest genuinely open.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for St. Louis — 0.9 goals conceded per game and 2 clean sheets put them well ahead of Earthquakes, who give up 2.6 goals per match at the other end.

Earthquakes has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

St. Louis has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

St. Louis has an exceptional home record with a 83% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 3.4 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being likely.

❄️ Form Momentum: Earthquakes is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

🔥 Form Momentum: St. Louis is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 20 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. St. Louis is on the rise with 7W in last 10, while Earthquakes shows signs of decline with 1W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 38.9-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for St. Louis. In practical terms, St. Louis would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Accounting for opponent quality throughout our evaluation, St. Louis emerges as the heavy favorite by every measurable indicator. A power rating of 70.0 compared to 31.1, combined with across-the-board statistical superiority, projects St. Louis as the likely winner and by a comfortable margin.

In their recent Major League Soccer match (2026-08-16), St. Louis prevailed 1-3 against Earthquakes. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, St. Louis achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Earthquakes shows genuine quality and mental strength. Earthquakes will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. St. Louis will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.