Somalia vs Uganda Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

A statistical edge is evident here, but the trailing side carries enough threat to keep this competitive. Once opponent quality is accounted for, the differential softens somewhat without fundamentally altering the overall outlook.

Somalia has faced significantly tougher opposition (SoS: 52.8) compared to Uganda (SoS: 41.7). This means Somalia's statistics carry more weight - they've been battle-tested against quality opponents.

Uganda's attack is on another level, averaging 1.5 goals per match with R. Mato leading the charge (3 goals). This firepower makes them dangerous in any fixture.

Both defenses are comparable, with Somalia conceding 1.4 and Uganda conceding 1.5 per match.

Somalia has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 2.4 total goals. Going Under 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking unlikely given current form.

❄️ Form Momentum: Somalia is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 7 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📈 Form Momentum: Uganda has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.6 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Uganda is on the rise with 5W in last 10, while Somalia shows signs of decline with 1W in last 7.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Uganda faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.5 goals per match. If Somalia can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 13.5-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 84% win probability for Uganda. In practical terms, Uganda would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Uganda has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 13.5-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - African (2025-09-08): Uganda defeated Somalia 2-0. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Uganda's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Somalia. Uganda secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. Somalia will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Uganda will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.