Spain vs Sweden Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Raw output from both teams looks comparable at first glance, yet once we account for Strength of Schedule, a clear hierarchy emerges. The favorite has repeatedly risen to the challenge against higher-caliber opponents, underlining a genuine quality advantage.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 35.7 vs 36.9), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Few sides can match Spain in front of goal. Their 2.9 average per fixture tells the story, with Clàudia Pina driving that output personally responsible for 8 goals this campaign.

Spain holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 0.3 goals per game and recording 7 clean sheets, compared to Sweden's leaky backline that surrenders 1.5 goals per match.

Spain has an exceptional home record with a 100% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Spain is a strong road performer with a 60% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 2.8 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking unlikely given current form.

🔥 Form Momentum: Spain is in scorching form, winning 8 of their last 10 matches with 29 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

❄️ Form Momentum: Sweden is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Spain is on the rise with 8W in last 10, while Sweden shows signs of decline with 2W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 41.9-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Spain. In practical terms, Spain would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Our opponent-adjusted metrics point overwhelmingly in one direction: Spain holds a commanding advantage here. The power rating gap — 75.0 against 33.1 — reinforces what the underlying numbers already suggest, making Spain a strong and justified favorite to win decisively.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. In their recent UEFA Women's Nations League match (2025-10-28), Spain prevailed 0-1 against Sweden. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, Spain achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Sweden shows genuine quality and mental strength. The narrow 0-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Sweden will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Spain will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. In their recent UEFA Women's Nations League match (2025-10-24), Spain prevailed 4-0 against Sweden. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Spain secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 4-0 scoreline was emphatic — Spain completely dominated Sweden in that encounter, raising serious questions about Sweden's ability to compete at this level. Sweden will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Spain will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.