St. Vincent vs St. Lucia Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Raw output from both teams looks comparable at first glance, yet once we account for Strength of Schedule, a clear hierarchy emerges. The favorite has repeatedly risen to the challenge against higher-caliber opponents, underlining a genuine quality advantage.

Context matters here: St. Vincent's schedule strength (SoS: 60.8) has been notably more demanding than St. Lucia's (SoS: 45.7), meaning their underlying stats reflect performance against higher-calibre opposition and should be weighted accordingly.

St. Vincent possess a formidable attacking unit, with O. Anderson accounting for 6 goals and the squad maintaining an impressive 3.0 goals per game — a threat no opponent can afford to overlook.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for St. Vincent — 1.0 goals conceded per game and 3 clean sheets put them well ahead of St. Lucia, who give up 3.4 goals per match at the other end.

St. Vincent has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

St. Lucia has an exceptional home record with a 100% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 4.1 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being possible.

📈 Form Momentum: St. Vincent has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 2.14 points per game over their last 7 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: St. Lucia is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 5 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. St. Vincent is on the rise with 5W in last 7, while St. Lucia shows signs of decline with 1W in last 5.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, St. Vincent faces a key vulnerability: their away form is significantly weaker than their home record. If St. Lucia can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 56.9-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for St. Vincent. In practical terms, St. Vincent would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Accounting for opponent quality throughout our evaluation, St. Vincent emerges as the heavy favorite by every measurable indicator. A power rating of 78.8 compared to 21.9, combined with across-the-board statistical superiority, projects St. Vincent as the likely winner and by a comfortable margin.

In their recent Internationals match (2025-11-16), St. Vincent prevailed 3-1 against St. Lucia. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. St. Vincent secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. St. Lucia will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. St. Vincent will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.