Sunderland vs Newcastle Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

While the data leans decisively toward one side, dismissing the underdog would be premature. Adjusting for strength of schedule brings the margins closer together, yet the broader trend holds firm throughout the analysis.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 68.3 vs 66.0), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Sunderland leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.9 goals per game compared to Newcastle's 1.4 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Newcastle has the defensive edge, conceding 1.3 per match compared to Sunderland's 1.8.

Sunderland has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 2 of 5 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Newcastle has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 2 of 7 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 3.2 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

📈 Form Momentum: Sunderland has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.7 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Sunderland faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.8 goals per match. If Newcastle can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 8.4-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 71% win probability for Sunderland. In practical terms, Sunderland would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

Sunderland has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 8.4-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

In the Premier League (2026-03-22), Sunderland beat Newcastle 1-2. League results are the most consistent indicator of form, and this result speaks volumes about the current dynamic between these teams. Notably, Sunderland achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Newcastle shows genuine quality and mental strength. The narrow 1-2 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Newcastle will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Sunderland will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.