Sunderland vs Derby Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

With comparable strength of schedule figures (46.5 vs 40.8), the opposition quality faced by both sides has been largely equivalent, giving these head-to-head stats greater analytical validity.

The attacking output of Sunderland and Derby is virtually identical, with both sides posting averages of 1.0 and 1.0 goals per game respectively.

Sunderland holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 1.5 goals per game and recording 1 clean sheets, compared to Derby's leaky backline that surrenders 5.0 goals per match.

Sunderland has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Derby has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Statistical modeling projects 4.2 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Sunderland is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: Derby is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 1 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Sunderland faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.5 goals per match. If Derby can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 20.1-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Sunderland. In practical terms, Sunderland would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward Sunderland in this contest. Their superior power rating of 36.7, compared to 16.6 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.

In the Women's FA Cup (2025-12-14), Sunderland eliminated Derby with a 1-5 result. Cup matches bring a unique intensity, and Sunderland showed they can handle the pressure. Notably, Sunderland achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Derby shows genuine quality and mental strength. The 1-5 scoreline was emphatic — Sunderland completely dominated Derby in that encounter, raising serious questions about Derby's ability to compete at this level. Derby will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Sunderland will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.