Sunderland vs Newcastle Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

While the data leans decisively toward one side, dismissing the underdog would be premature. Adjusting for strength of schedule brings the margins closer together, yet the broader trend holds firm throughout the analysis.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 46.5 vs 46.1), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Both teams are evenly matched in attack, with Sunderland averaging 1.0 and Newcastle averaging 1.1 goals per match.

Newcastle has the defensive edge, conceding 0.8 per match compared to Sunderland's 1.5.

Sunderland has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Newcastle has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Statistical modeling projects 2.2 goals in this fixture. The data points Under 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Sunderland is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

💡 Why This Matters: The 9.6-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 74% win probability for Newcastle. In practical terms, Newcastle would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

Newcastle has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 9.6-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

These two teams drew 1-1 in the English WSL 2 (2026-03-29). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.