Suriname vs Costa Rica Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 43.9 vs 41.6), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Suriname (1.3 goals per match) and Costa Rica (1.1 goals per match) present comparable offensive threats, making this an evenly contested attacking matchup.

Defensively, Suriname holds the advantage — allowing just 1.4 goals per game against Costa Rica's 1.9.

Suriname has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Costa Rica has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 2.9 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Suriname is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: Costa Rica is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Suriname faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.4 goals per match. If Costa Rica can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 7.2-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 68% win probability for Suriname. In practical terms, Suriname would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

Suriname has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 7.2-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

In the Concacaf Gold Cup (2025-06-16), Costa Rica eliminated Suriname with a 4-3 result. Cup matches bring a unique intensity, and Costa Rica showed they can handle the pressure. Costa Rica secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 4-3 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Suriname will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Costa Rica will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.